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Silver is a talented man.  Talented enough that what started out as a political statistics blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, has been bought and sold and expanded

fooled with a few times since its inception during the 2008 election.

His schtick, for lack of a better phrase, involves taking polling data, applying a bunch of additional statistical data to it (e.g. how far from the final election result each polling “house” tends to be, what the demographics and past voting performance in a particular state/district have been, what broader polling data can tell us about narrow questions, etc.).

The problem is, most people take a look at the “probability” percentages he assigns any outcome, and go into immediate excitement or despair.  So let me break down what Nate is telling you about Tuesday’s election:

Think of his probabilities as the sides on a die

Right now, according to Nate, Republicans have a 4-in-5 chance of holding the Senate, and Democrats have a 7-in-8 chance of taking the House.  What does that mean, exactly?

The easiest way to think about this is, for the Senate, take a 5-sided die (yes, I checked, they exist), and color four of those sides red.  Then take an 8-sided die (again, yes), and color 7 of those sides blue for the House.

You still have to roll the die.

That’s how probability works.  Selecting the number of chances, the number of chances each outcome has, and then taking the chance.

The Democrats have a slightly better chance of winning the Senate than Donald Trump did of winning the Electoral Vote while losing the Popular Vote

In 2016, the final probability Nate calculated for Donald Trump winning the election without taking the Popular Vote was 10.5%.

That…doesn’t sound like a lot, does it?  Well, tell that to President Trump.

70 percent doesn’t mean squat

If you look at Nate’s ratings of various races, 70 percent (or thereabouts) probability comes up in a lot of races.  That’s roughly the point at which a “normal polling error” (that is, an error the size of a poll’s “margin of error”) can throw it the other way.

If you want to think of something as, more-or-less, “certain,” that race needs to be north of 90 percent in Nate’s ratings.  But…

85 percent tends to mean multiple things have to go wrong

And Democrats are sitting at 87 percent probability, as of this writing, to take the House.  There are still scenarios where Republicans hold on (Nate explains all this here) but it would take an unusual polling error for it to happen.

Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski may become the most powerful politicians in America for the next couple years

If all goes exactly as Nate predicts, down to even the slight advantages (and it wouldn’t be the first time), we’re looking at a 50-50 split in the Senate, with the Vice President casting votes constantly.

That means Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, the last real “independent-minded” Republicans left in the body, will be calling all the shots.  If Republicans want to get anything passed, they will not be able to lose a single vote (as the Vice President only votes in the event of a tie).

And, if Nate hits 100 percent again, Democrats are looking at losing North Dakota, while picking up Arizona and Nevada.  Republican efforts to pick off any other Democrats, including in Indiana, Missouri, Florida, West Virginia, and Montana, will come up short…again…if Nate hits 100 percent.

If there is a systemic polling error, Democrats have the momentum

Let’s get something out in the open real quick…

The polls have been accurate.  Even in 2016.  They were as accurate as they usually are.  So what happened?

We happened. We couldn’t make up our mind of who we liked enough to turn out and vote for (making “Likely Voter” modeling by the pollsters more difficult).

But the final election results came in within that general margin of error.  And things get messy when that margin of error crosses the victory line.  And it crossed for Trump in 2016.  Trump had the momentum leading into Election Day.

This time, Democrats do.  For the past few days, Democratic probabilities have been on a slow-and-steady rise in both the Senate and House.

Midwestern state capitols may throw a collective big, blue switch

Right now, the only state in the Midwest to have a Democratic governor is Minnesota.

However, if all pans out the way Nate’s probabilities show (again, a very very big “if”), Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio will join them.  And if you throw in the thought of a slight polling error again, Kansas and even South Dakota may go blue.

But, almost all of those races are super-super tight.  Of those eight races, the leader in four of them (Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas) has a probability below 60 percent.  That means you can more-or-less throw a dart at the board with those.

Don’t expect Nate to land another 100 percent performance

It’s not his fault, really.  It’s that Americans are growing increasingly polarized, and polarization affects turnout.  For some, polarization energizes.  For some, polarization alienates.

When you add in unlikeable candidates running campaigns (or even careers) chock full of controversy, that throws a wrench in public opinion making polling more difficult.

And if YOU can’t figure out who you like more, how the heck is Nate supposed to do it?

The post How to Sort Out Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Data Leading Into the Midterm appeared first on The Midwest Guy.

the wily political veteran Hillary

promised…something. 

not sure, to be honest.  But we were “with her,” yeah?  No?  Well…hm.

Okay, let’s rewind a little further.

The olden days of 2010.  Here in Wisconsin, what would turn out to be a battle for the soul of the Badger State was raging between two men who were practically neighbors.  In the right corner stood Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive, the first Republican to hold the post…probably ever, who knows.  But Walker promised Wisconsinites that he was going to “cut your taxes,” and “kill the train,” and “create 250,000 jobs!”  His opponent, in the left corner, Mayor of the City of Milwaukee, Tom Barrett.  Barrett, the former congressman cum city CEO got out on the stump and promised the people of Wisconsin he would…not be Scott Walker?

Are you noticing a pattern here?

What I just described to you, in a nutshell, is the reason Democrats have had such a hard time winning elections even though they have proven themselves to be the better party at actually doing the jobs we elect them to do.  They aren’t putting out a bold vision for anything.  And what little vision they are talking about is so damned nuanced and long-winded that nobody remembers what they’re promising by the time they get to the end of detailing the promise from the stump.

The frustrating thing is the grassroots of the Democratic Party isn’t just demanding bold action…they’re telling the party exactly what to do.  What’s worse is, while the Republicans are promising things that either can’t be done (build the wall, create 250,000 jobs) or shouldn’t be done (cut your taxes, kill the train), Democrats have a plethora of promises to pick from that can be done, and should be done.

The best example of how to do this as a Democrat actually comes from newly-elected Virginia State Delegate Danica Roem.  Roem, while she had every opportunity to play the identity card as a trans woman running against an anti-transgender “old boy,” or to parry every bigoted attack that was thrown at her from her opposition, instead, won on a simple message: “Fix Route 28.”

With those three simple words Roem knocked out a 28-year veteran Republican in a safe Republican seat.

That’s the kind of magic that Democrats need right now.  Why?  Because the Republicans are coming back.  Why?  Because the Republicans at least say they believe in something.  Something actionable.  Something affirmative.  Something everyone can understand (whether they support it or not).

So the Democrats have to fight simple, affirmative platform fire with simple, affirmative platform fire.

Connect every home!

Every home in the United States, urban or rural, east or west, north or south, should have a connection to at least 100 megabit broadband internet.  Not only will this be the economic equivalent of rural electrification in the 1930s, this could save rural America entirely.  Our small towns and counties have been hollowed out over the last 50 years.  Farming families are dying out, literally.  Massive agribusiness is taking over the small farms and folding them in, but not doing anywhere near as much for the adjacent towns.

But you know who seems to kinda dig rural life?  Millennial desk jockeys.  There’s an unusual entrepreneurial spirit in the 18-37 year old cohort (full disclosure: that includes me).  Possibly because the Great Recession hit right when a lot of us were supposed to be getting “real jobs,” so we had to find ways to create our own.  And, apparently, we want to do it on a small farm.  But we need a website for that small farm, and credit card payment processing at the farmers markets, and a VPN connection for the spouse to remote into work downtown, and don’t even ask us to live without our Netflix.

Connect every home and you save rural America.

Make work pay!

Meet “Ned.”  Ned is a nice guy.  Ned works at the local Sam’s Club food counter in Naperville, Illinois stocking shelves for $10/hr.  Ned works full time, and goes home to his 16-year-old son Charlie, 12-year-old daughter Melissa, and his wife Betsy who earns $12.50 an hour as a Certified Nursing Assistant.  Together, they gross about $49k.  Problem is, that’s about $10k per year short of being able to afford the average 2-bedroom apartment in Naperville.

So they get a small Section 8 voucher to help afford their place to live.  They qualify for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program. Neither one of them has ever been able to afford a new car, and the idea of “retirement” is something “rich people do.”

It’s more than just raising minimum wage.  Minimum wage has to go up and be set to automatically adjust every year or two to keep up with inflation.

But more is needed beyond that.  A tax penalty against companies that have a certain percentage or more of their workforce eligible for certain public benefits because the pay is so low.  Think about it…if a full-time worker is eligible for $5,000 in various forms of public aid, that means that person’s employer is getting $5,000 worth of free labor every year.  Either pay your people what they’re worth, or repay the taxpayer what you’re costing them.

Fix our country!

America’s infrastructure is so dilapidated it’s embarrassing.  And it’s not just our roads.  Our bridges are falling into the water.  The parts of our power grid that aren’t full-on failing are still vulnerable to cyber-attack.

But didn’t Donald Trump promise to fix our infrastructure?  Sure!  He promised to spend only $200 billion on a trillion-and-a-half dollar’s worth of work!  How?  Magic, apparently.  Oh, also, the plan is already dead.

No, a real plan, with real money, and real vision is needed.  Pledge to spend X-dollars within Y-years to create Z-results.  For example: “We’re going to spend $75 billion dollars here in Missouri to bring every road in the state up to spec by 2023.”

Make our own bank!

Here’s a cool idea: create a Bank of [State].  North Dakota did this eons ago, and it is helping that state weather bad times, and secure good times.  It makes every tax dollar in that state go a little further.  And residents can invest in it, getting a good return, and generating even better outcomes for North Dakota residents.  Why should North Dakota be having all the fun?

Clear out criminals!

You know what has really cheesed the American people off?  Watching people harm their fellow Americans and get away with it.  I’ve been a big fan of Barack Obama ever since I interviewed him back during his Senate race.  Still am.  But he really screwed up here, directing his Department of Justice to not prosecute those who broke the law in the Bush Administration, or who caused the Great Recession.

Americans need to be able to trust their government again.  And they will never be able to do that so long as those who are put in a position of public trust and/or power are let off when they break the law.  No more leniency for public servants or powerful people who violate the public trust.

Create a bunch of jobs!

Sure, Scott Walker made this promise and failed on it.  Hard.  But does anyone care?  No.  At the end of the day, so long as you’re in the positive on this category, you win.  Just throw a number out there.

There are plenty more ideas that can be summed up in three words.  So if you’re a Democrat running for office, either pick a few things off the menu above, or come up with your own.  Just make sure you can sum it up in 3-5 words, make it big, and hang your hat on it.

As one of the greatest Midwesterners in history, Daniel Burnham (the Architect of Chicago) once said: “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood.”

The post The Democratic Party is Three Words Away From Screwing the 2018 Elections Up appeared first on The Midwest Guy.