Illinois

Illinois Elections

Primary Date: March 20, 2012

Illinois’ elections are going to be all about legislature this year, especially after a heavy gerrymandering session in 2011 that is expected to give Democrats an even heavier majority in both houses of the Illinois General Assembly, as well the state’s Congressional delegation.  Though the districts make more sense on a map than the previous set that were drawn by a court, this set groups several Republican incumbents together, while shoring upDemocratically-held districts at all levels.

Illinois lost one district after population changes were taken into account.  Rep. John Shimkus (R) represented the soon-to-be-defunct 19th district.  Geographically, Shimkus will be shifted into the new 15th.

District maps:  2010 US Congress  2012 US Congress

2012 Statewide Elections:

There are no statewide elections in Illinois in 2012.  Sen. Mark Kirk (R) was elected in 2010, while Sen. Dick Durbin (D) was re-elected in 2008.  Gov. Pat Quinn was elected in 2010 as well, which means the next set of statewide races in Illinois will be in 2014, with Durbin and Quinn both up for re-election, as well as all lower statewide races (Secretary of State, Treasurer, Comptroller, etc.).

Illinois General Assembly:

Look for Illinois’ General Assembly to become more strongly, and more securely Democratic.  The aforementioned redistricting process is likely to give Democrats a few more seats in both houses.

US Congress:

Pick your district:  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18

IL-1 (Chicago South Side, Southwest Suburbs) — COOK PVI: D+28

Incumbent: Rep. Bobby Rush (D)

This district is a lock for Democrats, considering the heavy Democratic demographics of the South Side of Chicago, and the nearby Southwest Suburbs.  Even if it weren’t for that, Rep. Rush’s heavy incumbent factor (he’s been serving this district since 1993, even staving off a challenger from fellow South Sider Barack Obama) would have him as a lock.

Donald Peloquin, the mayor of suburban Blue Island, IL, won the Republican nomination in the March primary election.  He defeated police officer and former Cook County Sheriff candidate (2010) Frederick Collins.

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IL-2 (Chicago South Side, Kankakee) — COOK PVI: D+27

Incumbent: Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D)

Another Democratic lock for 2012, the only challenge to incumbent Rep. Jackson was former IL-11 Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who now finds herself living in the newly formed second district.  She put up, possibly, the strongest challenge Rep. Jackson has endured in years, however, she still lost 29%-71%.  That should show you the position of Rep. Jackson.

For the Republicans, Olivent Nazarene University criminal justice professor Brian Woodworth got the nod in the March 20 primary.  According to most recent filings, however, Woodworth’s campaign has no money, compared to the $740k Jackson has raised.  Jackson may have had to face off against 11th District Republican Adam Kinzinger who also now lives in the 2nd District, but Kinzinger decided instead to run in the 16th against fellow Republican Don Manzullo, a move that ultimately proved astute.

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IL-3 (Chicago Southwest Side, Western Suburbs) — COOK PVI: D+5

Incumbent: Rep. Dan Lipinski (D)

Though this is a much less-Democratic district than the first two, it has just as much of a chance of jumping parties, especially as the district was altered to include parts of Chicago’s Bridgeport neighborhood.  Dan Lipinski has been representing this district since 2005.

Richard Grabowski is a “Materials Supervisor” at a manufacturing company in the southwest suburbs.  Originally from Hometown, IL, Grabowski’s website makes it seem as if he’s more interested in running against the Family Madigan (including Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and his daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan) than he is against Lipinski.  Regardless of who he’s focused on, he’s not raising any money, at least not yet.

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IL-4 (Chicago North and Southwest Sides) — COOK PVI: D+27

Incumbent: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D)

Illinois’ most heavily gerrymandered district continues its tradition, and continues providing Rep. Gutierrez with a job for as long as he would like it.  At one point, this district exactly follows the I-294 Tri-State Tollway in order to connect the two otherwise separated parts of this district in the same sideways earmuff formation as before.

Gutierrez has already won reelection here.  With help from the Illinois Board of Elections, his only challengers (Democrat Jorge Zavala and Republican Hector Concepcion) were removed from the ballot in January.  This clears the decks for Gutierrez, and it’s not difficult to defeat a non-existent opponent.

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IL-5 (Chicago North Side & Western Suburbs) — COOK PVI: D+16

Incumbent: Rep. Michael Quigley (D)

Hailed as a reformer by the Chicago Tribune when he ran in a special election for Illinois’ district that usually plays host to controversial Congressmen, Rep. Quigley beat Republican lawyer and real estate developer David Ratowitz in a landslide for re-election in 2010.  Keep in mind, this is the former home seat of Rahm Emanuel (now Mayor of Chicago) and Rod Blagojevich (D-Englewood, Colorado Federal Correctional Institution).

Dan Schmitt took the Republican nomination in the district unchallenged.  Schmitt, a self-employed man from Mayfair is a native of Chicago’s Albany Park neighborhood.  Schmitt is a bit of an enigma as his site doesn’t provide much substantial information about him.  There’s a video of him describing the newly-drawn geography of the district, and a bio of him that covers his life from birth through his sophomore year in high school (to be continued).

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IL-6 (Wheaton, Palatine) — COOK PVI: R+4

Incumbent: Rep. Peter Roskam (R)

One of the few Republicans in Illinois to be given the gift of a party-healthy district from the Democrats in control of the process in Springfield, Rep. Peter Roskam, who has represented this district since 2007, ran unopposed in the Republican primary.  Part of this is owed to Roskam’s even-keeled, middle-of-the-road approach to representing his district.  The northwestern suburbs aren’t strong “Tea Party” territory.

The Democrats, however, are fielding Leslie Coolidge, is a Certified Public Accountant and partner at KPMG, a professional services/consulting firm based out of the Netherlands.  She on the three-way primary with more than 50% of the vote on March 20.

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IL-7 (Chicago Loop, West Side) — COOK PVI: D+36

Incumbent: Rep. Danny K. Davis (D)

In this most Democratic of Democratic Illinois Congressional districts, I can give you the winner of the 2012 race.  Danny Davis.  He ran practically unopposed in the primary (Jacque Conway got 15% of the vote), and doesn’t have a Republican challenger in the general.  His campaign website looks like it hasn’t been touched for years.  This district doesn’t have much of a history of change.  Davis has held the seat since 1997.  Before him, the seat was held by former Rep.Cardiss Collins since 1973, making her the first African-American woman to represent the Midwest in Congress…ever.

Davis didn’t get the endorsement of the Chicago Tribune in 2010, largely because the Trib felt he was bored in office.  He toyed with the idea of running for Cook County President to replace the highly-unpopular Todd Stroger, and then for mayor to replace the retiring Richard Daley.  However, neither endeavor came to fruition.

But he still has a job for the next two years.  Largely because nobody has decided to come forth to relieve him of his seeming boredom.

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IL-8 (Schaumburg, Elgin) — COOK PVI: D+5

Incumbent: Rep. Joe Walsh (R)

Joe Walsh has a public image problem combined with a redistricting problem.  Democrats in Springfield decided to take revenge on his beating moderate Democrat Melissa Bean in 2010 by changing his toss-up district to a relatively-solid Democratic district.  Republicans responded by clearing the primary deck for him (it originally looked like Walsh would face a six-way, but ended up running unopposed).  But they still have an uphill battle here.

Tammy Duckworth is possibly the most popular Democrat in Illinois to not hold major elected office.  A veteran of the Iraq war who lost the lower half of both of her legs when her helicopter was struck by an insurgent RPG in theater (also severely damaging her right arm), Duckworth has a personal story that is almost unassailable by Walsh.  Duckworth previously ran for Congress in 2006, narrowly losing to Peter Roskam in the previous 6th District, she has since served as the head of the Illinois Dept. of Veterans Affairs, and also in the US Dept. of Veterans Affairs.  She defeated former Deputy State Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi in the primary.

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IL-9 (Chicago North Side, Evanston) — COOK PVI: D+16

Incumbent: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D)

Here’s another district where Republicans have phoned it in.  And it’s not hard to see why.  A PVI of D+16 is nearly unassailable, especially against an incumbent who has served in this district since 1999.

Jan Schakowsky faced a primary challenge from Simon Ribeiro, a high school teacher who ran on the Green Party ticket in 2010, and won easily.

Republicans only put one horse in the race, accountant Tim Wolfe.  A Republican primary was originally planned, but the other challenger, Susanne Atanus was removed from the ballot by the Illinois Board of Elections in January.  She is still running as a write-in candidate.  She promises “everyone will do well.”

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IL-10 (Chicago Northern Suburbs, North Shore) — COOK PVI: D+8

Incumbent: Rep. Robert Dold (R)

Though Robert Dold no longer lives in the 10th district (he was drawn into the Democratic-heavy 9th), he promises he will move into the district if he wins reelection.  He is one of the insurgent Republicans that ruined the night for Democrats in 2010.

Brad Schneider, a management consultant from Deerfield, emerged from a four-way primary victorious, despite trailing in the polls behind 25-year-old Ilya Sheyman, a community organizer from Waukegan.  This is another district where it’s going to be a tough slog for the Republican, as Democrats did Dold no favors in the redistricting process.  The 10th District had become known in Illinois for close races between moderate candidates.  Now, as a D+8, the Democrats can run to the left more, and have a decent chance of coming out on top.

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IL-11 (Joliet, Aurora) — COOK PVI: D+6

Incumbent:  none

Illinois’ 11th District got some heavy surgery.  What once used to be a Republican-leaning district that combined Chicago’s southern exurbs with bits and pieces of Central Illinois now hold’s none of the state’s flat and conservative center, and more of Chicago’s western and southwestern exurbs, making it a much bluer district than before.  The technical incumbent, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) was clearly drawn out of this district, which is why he’s not staying in this race.  Instead, he’s challenging for a seat in IL-16.

Republicans selected Rep. Judy Biggert, the technical incumbent in the 13th District, to run for them in the radically new 11th.  Though Biggert technically lives in the 5th (which would have put her in a meat grinder against Michael Quigley), she decided to run in the nearby 11th.

Former 14th District Democratic Congressman Bill Foster threw in on this race, and came out way on top of a three-way primary.  Foster represented the former 14th from 2008 until 2011 (losing in the 2010 Republican wave).  Now, he has a very party-friendly district to run in.

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IL-12 (St. Louis Metro East, Carbondale) — COOK PVI: D+2

Incumbent:  Rep. Jerry Costello (D)

Rep. Jerry Costello decided to cut bait and retire this year, but not before hand-picking his potential successor.  But that means what would have been an easy Democratic hold (Costello had held this seat since 1988) is now a toss up in a closely-drawn district.

Brad Harriman, a former NFL lineman and St. Clair County Regional Superintendent of Schools was Costello’s pick to replace him, and handily won the three-way Democratic primary.

Jason Plummer, a VP at his family’s lumber business (RP Lumber) already has one major loss on his record in his 2010 race for Lt. Governor (behind Bill Brady), running against the unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn (D-Illinois).  Plummer defeated former Belleville Mayor Rodger Cook, despite Cook getting most of the endorsements from Illinois media.

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IL-13 (Bloomington-Normal, Champaign, Decatur, Springfield) — COOK PVI: D+1

Incumbent:  Rep. Judy Biggert (R)

Dr. David Gill and Rep. Tim Johnson are back at it again.  Nobody that I can recall has received as many electoral beat-downs by another man and kept getting up for more.  Gill has been trying to unseat Johnson since 2004, but something is different this time.  Gill actually has a chance.

Due to redistricting, Johnson was removed from his Republican-heavy 15th District, and placed in a newly-formed, more evenly split (D+1) 13th District.  Gill narrowly defeated Greene County State’s Attorney Matt Goetten.  This district is very polarized, with college towns like Normal, Champaign-Urbana, and blue-collar industrial town Decatur leaning Democratic, while Bloomington and the areas in between all these towns leaning Republican (and Springfield toddling in the middle).

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IL-14 (Batavia, McHenry) — COOK PVI: R+6

Incumbent:  Rep. Randy Hultgren (R)

Illinois’ 14th District has been a bit of a problem for the state’s Democratic Party.  The district was, for a long time, held by former Speaker Denny Hastert, the longest-serving Republican Speaker in history.

However, it’s also been a bit of a miniature house of horrors for Republicans lately.  When Hastert retired, Bill Foster (who’s now running in the new 11th) defeated Republican dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (who is a perennial loser in Illinois politics) in a special election in 2008.  In the 2008 regular elections, Oberweis took another run, and lost to Foster again.

Randy Hultgren had the fight of his life to unseat Foster, and succeeded in the 2010 wave.  Now that the 14th is slightly less Republican-friendly, Dennis Anderson, a trustee of the International Breast Cancer Research Foundation thinks he can grab it.  But it’s still R+6, so Hultgren is the favorite.

Anderson is trying to fill the shoes Foster had in the district.  Both are University of Wisconsin-Madison products.  Both are scientists (Foster was a physicist, Anderson is a cancer researcher).  But will that be enough?

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IL-15 (Effingham, Danville) — COOK PVI: R+11

Incumbent: none

You’ll notice a few things about this district.  First, there’s no incumbent.  The incumbent here, Tim Johnson, got drawn into IL-13.  Second, there’s only one candidate, the Democrat in this race, Angela Michael, is a bit of a Republican.  And she’s running against Rep. John Shimkus, whose district was eliminated by reapportionment in 2010.  And…Shimkus will win.

Michael’s website makes it abundantly clear she has one issue on her mind…abortion.  She’s against it.  Big time.  The ads she has on her site are all about abortion, displaying dismembered fetuses, and all that fun stuff.  Problem is, abortion isn’t a salient issue in this election.  The economy is.

Democrats aren’t going to vote for Michael, but Republicans will vote for Shimkus. And there’s a lot more of them in this district.  Southeastern Illinois is the Republican stronghold in the Prairie State, holding the only counties that voted for Alan Keyes over Barack Obama in the 2004 US Senate race.  So, Shimkus wins, and there’s not much Democrats can do about that this year, or likely any other year.

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IL-16 (Ottawa, Rockford) — COOK PVI: R+5

Incumbent:  Rep. Don Manzullo (R)

In this primary-as-general district, Republicans were pretty much forced to eat their own.  Popular incumbent Don Manzullo was dislodged from his long-time job in March by 11th District Republican Adam Kinzinger.  House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) made the controversial move to endorse Kinzinger over Manzullo during the primary, while all other major Republicans stayed out (like they tend to in all primaries).

Kinzinger is a Tea Party favorite, and part of Cantor’s “Young Guns” squad.

No Democrat filed to challenge this district.

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IL-17 (Quad Cities, Peoria, Rockford) — COOK PVI: D+6

Incumbent:  Rep. Bobby Schilling (R)

It seems Moline pizza man Bobby Schilling poked a hornet’s nest when he upset long-time Democratic Rep. Phil Hare in 2010.  As a thank-you gift, Illinois Democrats gave him a heavily-Democratic district, which originally had six people either running, or considering running, and three ultimately squared off in the March primary.

Of those, Cheri Bustos, an alderwoman from East Moline, won the primary and will take on Schilling.  This one will be interesting, since even though it’s a Democratically-friendly district now, Bustos doesn’t have a lot of name recognition yet against an incumbent congressman.

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IL-18 (Quincy, Peoria, Springfield) — COOK PVI: R+10

Incumbent: Rep. Aaron Schock (R)

You know you’re in a comfortable district when you don’t mind getting more attention for your six-pack abs than for your policies and positions.  But that’s where Aaron Schock is.  The youngest of the Republican’s young guns.  He’s only 30, but first assumed his current office at the age of 28.  But that’s not all.  He first won elective office at the age of 19, when he won a seat on the Peoria School Board, which he became president of three years later.  At the age of 23, Schock won Peoria’s seat in the Illinois House of Representatives.  So this guy is a bit of a force to be reckoned with.

Who isn’t a force to be reckoned is his opponent, former Air Force (and Air National Guard) Master Sgt. Steve Waterworth.  He defeated fellow lightweight Matthew Woodmancy in the March primary, and will be defeated handily in the November generals.  Central Illinois will have Aaron Schock to kick around, right in his six-pack abs, for at least the next two years.